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There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one геи жестко A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic. It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.” Similar hype plays out every hurricane season especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked worst-case-scenario model run goes viral but more often than not will never come to fruition. Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life. The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System also known as the GFS or American model run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world. All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so. For example the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November. It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Why so many ghosts? No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data. The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do according to Alicia Bentley the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center. The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme” according to Bentley. In plain language that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it. Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time. The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

Les adherents du parti Les Republicains sont appeles a voter samedi et dimanche pour choisir leur futur president. Mais entre Bruno Retailleau et Laurent Wauquiez peu de differences ideologiques existent : a l’image de ce qu’est devenu leur parti depuis 2017 tous deux font campagne a droite toute en misant sur les questions d’immigration et de securite. kra33 at Publie le : 16/05/2025 - 10:45 Modifie le : 16/05/2025 - 10:52 6 minTemps de lecture kra33 СЃСЃ Par : Romain BRUNET Laurent Wauquiez et Bruno Retailleau le 19 septembre 2024 arrivant a Matignon. Laurent Wauquiez et Bruno Retailleau le 19 septembre 2024 arrivant a Matignon. © Ludovic Marin AFP Apres plusieurs semaines de campagne difficile de savoir qui de Bruno Retailleau ou Laurent Wauquiez remportera la presidence du parti Les Republicains LR. Les adherents du parti de droite sont invites a les departager samedi 17 et dimanche 18 mai pour choisir celui qui incarnera desormais LR avec en toile de fond l’election presidentielle de 2027. Mais comment choisir entre deux candidats presentant si peu de differences de ligne ideologique ? Bruno Retailleau et Laurent Wauquiez placent constamment l’immigration et la securite au centre de leurs discours. Si bien que pour exister face a un candidat-ministre devenu favori et omnipresent dans les medias l’ancien president de la region Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes s’est senti oblige de jouer la surenchere en proposant le 8 avril dans le JDNews que les etrangers dangereux sous OQTF de quitter le territoire francais soient enfermes dans un centre de retention a Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon hors de l’Hexagone. kraken33 https://kra---33-at.ru

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It wasn’t the most contentious meeting the Oval Office has ever seen. Nor was it the warmest.
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Instead, the highly anticipated meeting Tuesday between President Donald Trump and his new Canadian counterpart Mark Carney fell somewhere in the middle: neither openly hostile nor outwardly chummy, evincing very little neighborliness, at least the type used on neighbors one likes.
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The midday talks illustrated neatly the new dynamic between the once-friendly nations, whose 5,525-mile border — the world’s longest — once guaranteed a degree of cooperation but which, to Trump, represents something very different.
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“Somebody drew that line many years ago with, like, a ruler, just a straight line right across the top of the country,” Trump said in the Oval Office as his meeting was getting underway. “When you look at that beautiful formation when it’s together – I’m a very artistic person, but when I looked at that, I said: ‘That’s the way it was meant to be.’”

That is not how Carney believes it was meant to be.

“I’m glad that you couldn’t tell what was going through my mind,” Carney told reporters later that day about the moment Trump made that remark.
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Still, Carney didn’t entirely hold his tongue.

In a meeting dominated by Trump’s comments — he spoke 95% of the time on all manner of topics, from the Middle East to Barack Obama’s presidential library to the state of high-speed rail in California — it was the new prime minister’s pushback on the president’s ambition to make Canada the 51st US state that stood out.

“As you know from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale,” he said, drawing a begrudging “that’s true” from Trump before Carney carried on.
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